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Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy stock losses creating some safe haven buying demand. Data wasn't heavily traded, but it didn't do any harm. Producer Prices were mixed, with an upward revision in September being offset by lower-than-expected inflation in November. Retail Sales (also November data) beat at the headline, but the control group (excludes autos/gas/building materials) was in line with estimates and October's number was revised lower. Despite the bond gains, mortgage rates were unchanged. This offers a potential clue about lenders being resistant to the notion of offering meaningful improvements from current levels in the short term.
No major reaction to AM econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.165
Best levels of the day with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.138
Little changed from last update. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.7bps at 4.133
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 14 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Refi Index | Jan/09 | 1313.1 | 937 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/09 | 184.6 | 159.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/09 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/09 | 348 | 270.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov PPI YoY | Nov | 3% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Nov | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Nov | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Producer Prices (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales (%) | Nov | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Nov | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI YoY | Oct | 2.8% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Producer Prices (%) | Oct | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Business Inventories (% ) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Existing home sales (ml) | Dec | 4.35M | 4.21M | 4.13M |
| 10:00AM | Dec Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Dec | 5.1% | 0.5% | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/09 | 3.391M | -2.2M | -3.831M |
| Thursday, Jan 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Prices Paid | Jan | 43.60 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan NY Fed Manufacturing | Jan | 1 | -3.90 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/03 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/03 | 1890K | 1914K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/10 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/10 | 215K | 208K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Philly Fed Business Index | Jan | -2 | -10.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Business Inventories (% ) | Nov | |||
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