10yr Yields Finally Break The Range

10yr Yields Finally Break The Range

Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reason to move. In fact, 10yr yields staged their first legit breakout from the narrow trading range of the past 4 months.  Whether that has any implications for the future is a debate for technical analysts to have with fundamental traders. There was an extra little jolt of mid-day weakness when Trump suggested Hassett was out of the running for the Fed Chair nomination, but the day's bond losses would still be better-characterized as gradual and non-event-driven. MBS outperformed yet again for the same old reason (actual and/or anticipated GSE MBS purchases), but nonetheless ended the week at the lows.

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10yr Yields Finally Break The Range

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.03 -0.15 10YR 4.223% +0.050% 1/16/2026 4:59PM EST
MBS are only 1 tick (.03) lower than they were at the time of the last alert, but negative reprices are a slightly stronger possibility now considering the selling trend in the broader bond market (and the fact that this weakness has been more gradual). 10yr yields are up 5.4bps at 4.228.  MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) and some lenders are seeing at least as much weakness from rate sheet print times.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.07% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.60% +0.03% 1/16/2026
Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023.  That said, they're up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week's news regarding Fannie and Freddie's plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rates) made for a rapid drop in the average mortgage rate, but that had largely run its course by Monday. Since then, the market h...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 16
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
9:15AM Dec Industrial Production (%) Dec 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%
10:00AM Jan NAHB housing market indx Jan 37 40 39
Monday, Jan 19
12:00AM Martin Luther King Jr. Day
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First things first: if we take the last 5 days out of the equation, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. But they spent most of those last 5 days moving up from even lower levels. The changes are small in the big picture, but the distinction is important considering widespread reporting based on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. Freddie's data comes out on Thursdays and... READ MORE