No Reaction to Early Data, But Slightly Weaker Overnight
No Reaction to Early Data, But Slightly Weaker Overnight
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested in U.S. access and more concerned with pausing the more immediate market-related implications (new tariffs and changes in foreign demand for Treasuries). This notion was reinforced this morning as there was no reaction at all to new comments saying the U.S. would have "total access" to Greenland with "no time limit." The early round of econ data also failed to inspire, although that's no surprise given the stale nature of GDP and generally limited impact of weekly jobless claims. All that remains is the PCE inflation data at 10am ET, but it should be noted this is for the months of Oct/Nov and that we've already received CPI/PPI inflation reports for December. Data aside, yields have been trending gradually higher in concert with European markets, but Treasuries still retain a majority of yesterday's gains.
Modestly weaker overnight and no reaction to AM data so far. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.258
No major reaction to PCE data. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.261
Bouncing back a bit. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up only 1.3bps at 4.254
MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.249
Bonds Recovering a Bit After Framework of a Deal on Greenland
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 22 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/10 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/10 | 1849K | 1884K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/17 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/17 | 200K | 212K | 198K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Oct | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Oct PCE (y/y) (%) | Oct | 2.7% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Nov | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/16 | 3.602M | 1.1M | 3.391M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 21 | |||
| Friday, Jan 23 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.8 | 52.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jan | 52.1 | 51.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 52.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Nov | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jan | 54.0 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jan | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jan | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan U Mich conditions | Jan | 52.4 | 50.4 | |
