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Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground early and were unable to recover it by the 3pm close. On the other hand, there was a decent rally on Wednesday that set a high bar for additional gains. In other words, it's a victory to merely hold close to yesterday's closing levels. Data passed without a trace, either because it was stale, near consensus, or both. There was better buying in the afternoon--a fact that's consistent with our observation that the EU session had an impact today. The afternoon bond market recovery commenced when EU markets closed. Correlation, yes, but not necessarily causality.
Modestly weaker overnight and no reaction to AM data so far. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.258
No major reaction to PCE data. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.261
Bouncing back a bit. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up only 1.3bps at 4.254
MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.249
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 22 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | Jan/10 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/10 | 1849K | 1884K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/17 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/17 | 200K | 212K | 198K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Oct | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 10:00AM | Oct Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Oct PCE (y/y) (%) | Oct | 2.7% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Nov | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 10:00AM | Nov Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 12:00PM | Jan/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/16 | 3.602M | 1.1M | 3.391M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 21 | |||
| Friday, Jan 23 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.8 | 52.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jan | 52.1 | 51.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 52.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Nov CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Nov | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jan | 54.0 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jan | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jan | 3.4% | 3.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan U Mich conditions | Jan | 52.4 | 50.4 | |
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