Mostly Sideways to Start. Light Econ Calendar

Mostly Sideways to Start. Light Econ Calendar

Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower by 8am ET.  Volume picked up at the 8:20am CME open (as it usually does) and this time it brought more sellers. The net effect is a return to unchanged levels, for the most part.  There's some data on deck with S&P PMIs, Consumer Sentiment, and Leading Indicators, but not of these are top tier market movers. The rest of the day's momentum is more likely to be dictated by pre-weekend position squaring unless there's an unexpected geopolitical development. 

Market Movement Recap
09:27 AM

Modestly stronger overnight, but gains erased at the open. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up about half a bp at 4.248

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Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.88 0.00 10YR 4.245% +0.003% 1/23/2026 11:27AM EST
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower by 8am ET.  Volume picked up at the 8:20am CME open (as it usually does) and this time it brought more sellers. The net effect is a return to unchanged levels, for the most part.  There's some data on deck with S&P PMIs, Consumer Sentiment, and Leading Indicators, but not of these are top tier market...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.19% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.00% 1/22/2026
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two days. Specifically, our daily rate index is down to 6.19% after starting the week at 6.21% on Tuesday (up from 6.07% last Friday). While there was a large glut of seemingly important economic data today, it didn't have a noticeable impact on the bond market. Part of the reason is that the data in question is very stale at th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 23
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Services PMI Jan 52.5 52.8 52.5
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jan 51.9 52 51.8
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Composite PMI Jan 52.8 52.7
10:00AM Jan Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jan 56.4 54.0 52.9
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jan 4% 4.2% 4.2%
10:00AM Jan Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jan 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%
10:00AM Jan U Mich conditions Jan 55.4 52.4 50.4
Monday, Jan 26
8:30AM Nov Durables ex-transport (%) Nov 0.2%
8:30AM Nov Durables ex-defense mm (%) Nov -1.5%
8:30AM Nov Core CapEx (%) Nov 0.5%
8:30AM Nov Durable goods (%) Nov 0.5% -2.2%
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.304 billion
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
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First things first: if we take the last 5 days out of the equation, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. But they spent most of those last 5 days moving up from even lower levels. The changes are small in the big picture, but the distinction is important considering widespread reporting based on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. Freddie's data comes out on Thursdays and... READ MORE