Starting Fairly Flat After Spicy But Stale Durable Goods

Starting Fairly Flat After Spicy But Stale Durable Goods

This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a reaction at this meeting. That leaves the heavy lifting to be done by the likes of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday--a report that often has no impact and only occasionally fills the role of supporting actor. This morning's Durable Goods data has perhaps even less influence and that's good for fans of low rates because it crushed forecasts, coming in at 5.3 vs 3.7. If you squint, you can imagine a small reaction to the tune of half a bp of weakness in 10yr yields, but that's not enough movement to merit more than a passing glance.

Market Movement Recap
08:43 AM

Slightly stronger overnight. Modest pull-back after Durable Goods. MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.226

12:17 PM

10yr down 1.3bps at 4.215 but off best levels of 4.203 around 10:30am.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and at best levels of the day, perhaps signifying some GSE purchases behind the scenes.

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Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.00 +0.05 10YR 4.215% -0.014% 1/26/2026 12:19PM EST
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a reaction at this meeting. That leaves the heavy lifting to be done by the likes of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday--a report that often has no impact and only occasionally fills the role of supporting actor. This morning's Durable Goods data has perhaps even less influence and that's good for fans of low rates becau...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.17% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.75% -0.01% 1/26/2026
This week's only real mortgage rate movement was seen at the outset on Tuesday morning (Monday was closed for the holiday) in response to geopolitical issues and tariff escalation potential. Rates recovered only modestly when those threats abated--a fact that had everything to do with the bond market refusing to return to last week's levels and nothing to do with any mortgage-specific issue. If anything, the mortgage market is in the midst of stunning outperformance relativ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jan 26
8:30AM Nov Durables ex-transport (%) Nov 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Nov Durables ex-defense mm (%) Nov 6.6% -1.5%
8:30AM Nov Core CapEx (%) Nov 0.7% 0.5%
8:30AM Nov Durable goods (%) Nov 5.3% 3.7% -2.2%
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.304 billion
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Jan 27
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 8.0K
9:00AM Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Nov 0.3% 0.4%
9:00AM Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Nov -0.3%
9:00AM Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Nov 1.7%
9:00AM Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Nov 1.2% 1.3%
10:00AM Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) Jan 90.9 89.1
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
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Mortgage rates pulled back this week as the bond market digested geopolitical tension. After the 3-day holiday weekend, traders returned to find overseas markets pushing bond yields higher. The lesser of the two motivations had to do with fallout over fiscal issues in Japan which prompted heavy selling of Japanese bonds. There is often a certain amount of correlation between the sovereign ... READ MORE