Starting Fairly Flat After Spicy But Stale Durable Goods
Starting Fairly Flat After Spicy But Stale Durable Goods
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a reaction at this meeting. That leaves the heavy lifting to be done by the likes of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday--a report that often has no impact and only occasionally fills the role of supporting actor. This morning's Durable Goods data has perhaps even less influence and that's good for fans of low rates because it crushed forecasts, coming in at 5.3 vs 3.7. If you squint, you can imagine a small reaction to the tune of half a bp of weakness in 10yr yields, but that's not enough movement to merit more than a passing glance.
Slightly stronger overnight. Modest pull-back after Durable Goods. MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.226
10yr down 1.3bps at 4.215 but off best levels of 4.203 around 10:30am. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and at best levels of the day, perhaps signifying some GSE purchases behind the scenes.
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jan 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Durables ex-transport (%) | Nov | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Durables ex-defense mm (%) | Nov | 6.6% | -1.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core CapEx (%) | Nov | 0.7% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Durable goods (%) | Nov | 5.3% | 3.7% | -2.2% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.304 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| Tuesday, Jan 27 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8.0K | |||
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Nov | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Nov | -0.3% | ||
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Nov | 1.7% | ||
| 9:00AM | Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Nov | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jan | 90.9 | 89.1 | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||