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Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a bad one. Treasuries were modestly stronger overnight and MBS opened a few ticks higher. Durable goods data was much stronger than expected, but had no discernible impact. 10yr yields hit their lows of the day at 10:30am and then drifted sideways at just slightly higher (but still positive) levels. MBS, on the other hand, continued making modest gains throughout the day. Part of this had to do with yield curve steepening (i.e. shorter term yields fell more during the day, and MBS align with Treasuries that are a bit shorter than the 10yr note with which they're most frequently compared). But MBS also modestly outperformed even the 5yr Treasury yield--a fact that suggests some GSE bond buying may have contributed to spread tightening.
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 27 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7.75K | 8.0K | ||
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Nov | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 9:00AM | Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Nov | 0% | -0.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Nov | 1.9% | 1.7% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Nov | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jan | 90.9 | 89.1 | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| Wednesday, Jan 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Refi Index | Jan/23 | 1580.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/23 | 194.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/23 | 397.2 | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/23 | 3.602M | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.139% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
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