Gap Filled. Time to Sell?

Gap Filled. Time to Sell?

There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalysts for this phenomenon is the simple range breakout following by a filling of the gap created between yields on 2 consecutive days at the time of the breakout.  But such gaps are less common and less easy to agree upon than simple range boundaries. So to make things simple, we'll consider the "gap" upward in 10yr yields to simply be the recent altitude achieved above the 4.20% technical ceiling. With Monday's yields making it down to 4.203, the gap is arguably filled. More often than not, traders view this as cleansing of positional imbalances that sets the sage for more selling.

Market Movement Recap
08:15 AM

Moderately weaker overnight with 10yr up 2bps at 4.233.  MBS are outperforming along with the shorter end of the yield curve. 5.0 coupons are starting out just 1 tick (.03) weaker.

12:53 PM

Decent recovery in the 9am hour and flat since then. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.217

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MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.11 +0.04 10YR 4.226% +0.013% 1/27/2026 1:31PM EST
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals . One of the most common catalysts for this phenomenon is the simple range breakout following by a filling of the gap created between yields on 2 consecutive days at the time of the breakout.  But such gaps are less common and less easy to agree upon than simple range boundaries. So to make things simple, we'll consider the "gap" upward in 10yr yields t...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.15% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.00% 1/27/2026
Mortgage rates trickled modestly lower again today for the 4th straight business day on Monday. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is the lowest it's been since January 16th. The only catch is that it was quite a bit lower 2 weeks ago. Compared to today's mark of 6.17% on MND's daily rate index, mid-January lows ranged from 5.99 to 6.07%.  Note: in the following chart, 6.01 is the lowest mark, but in intraday terms, January 9th saw 5.99 for the better part of the da...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jan 27
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 7.75K 8.0K
9:00AM Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Nov 0.6% 0.3% 0.4%
9:00AM Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Nov 0% -0.3%
9:00AM Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Nov 1.9% 1.7%
9:00AM Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Nov 1.4% 1.2% 1.3%
10:00AM Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) Jan 84.5 90.9 89.1
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Wednesday, Jan 28
7:00AM Jan/23 MBA Refi Index Jan/23 1580.8
7:00AM Jan/23 MBA Purchase Index Jan/23 194.1
7:00AM Jan/23 Mortgage Market Index Jan/23 397.2
10:30AM Jan/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jan/23 3.602M
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.139%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 3.75% 3.75%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
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Mortgage rates pulled back this week as the bond market digested geopolitical tension. After the 3-day holiday weekend, traders returned to find overseas markets pushing bond yields higher. The lesser of the two motivations had to do with fallout over fiscal issues in Japan which prompted heavy selling of Japanese bonds. There is often a certain amount of correlation between the sovereign ... READ MORE