Gap Filled. Time to Sell?
Gap Filled. Time to Sell?
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalysts for this phenomenon is the simple range breakout following by a filling of the gap created between yields on 2 consecutive days at the time of the breakout. But such gaps are less common and less easy to agree upon than simple range boundaries. So to make things simple, we'll consider the "gap" upward in 10yr yields to simply be the recent altitude achieved above the 4.20% technical ceiling. With Monday's yields making it down to 4.203, the gap is arguably filled. More often than not, traders view this as cleansing of positional imbalances that sets the sage for more selling.
Moderately weaker overnight with 10yr up 2bps at 4.233. MBS are outperforming along with the shorter end of the yield curve. 5.0 coupons are starting out just 1 tick (.03) weaker.
Decent recovery in the 9am hour and flat since then. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.217
Off best levels, but gently. MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.229
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jan 27 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 7.75K | 8.0K | ||
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Nov | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 9:00AM | Nov CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Nov | 0% | -0.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Nov | 1.9% | 1.7% | |
| 9:00AM | Nov Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Nov | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jan | 84.5 | 90.9 | 89.1 |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| Wednesday, Jan 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Refi Index | Jan/23 | 1580.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/23 | 194.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/23 | 397.2 | ||
| 10:30AM | Jan/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/23 | 3.602M | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.139% | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||