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No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell's press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it. Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn't much movement in between.
Just barely stronger overnight and sideways so far this morning. MBS unchanged and 10yr effectively unchanged at 4.248.
MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.259
Limited reaction to Fed. Gaining some ground as Powell presser continues. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.246
No Surprises From Powell
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Refi Index | Jan/23 | 1332.2 | 1580.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/23 | 193.3 | 194.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/23 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/23 | 363.3 | 397.2 | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/23 | -2.296M | 1.75M | 3.602M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | 0.139% | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 30 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | |
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Powell Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Jan 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Trade Gap (bl) | Nov | $-40.5B | $-29.4B | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/17 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/17 | 1860K | 1849K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/24 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/24 | 205K | 200K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.304 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov Factory orders mm (%) | Nov | 1.6% | -1.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
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