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Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Weaker After Econ Data, But Bonds May Be Looking Elsewhere
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn't leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities. In any event, the damage is fairly limited in the big picture. One could simply say this is an ongoing rejection of 10yr yields re-entering the previous trading range.
No reaction to AM econ data. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.246.
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.253 after mystery, mini-sell-off levels off.
No reaction to 7yr auction. 10yr yield down 1bp at 4.233 and MBS unchanged.
Sideways near stronger levels in Treasuries with 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.228. MBS roughly unchanged.
No Surprises From Powell
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q3 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q3 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Trade Gap (bl) | Nov | $-56.8B | $-40.5B | $-29.4B |
| 8:30AM | Jan/17 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/17 | 1827K | 1860K | 1849K |
| 8:30AM | Jan/24 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/24 | 209K | 205K | 200K |
| 10:00AM | Nov Factory orders mm (%) | Nov | 2.7% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Friday, Jan 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PPI YoY | Dec | 2.7% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Producer Prices (%) | Dec | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9:45AM | Jan Chicago PMI | Jan | 44 | 43.5 | |
| 5:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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