Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressure.  It was almost too small to draw much attention to. MBS never dropped below yesterday's lows and 10yr yields merely moved back up to overnight highs (also, no higher than yesterday's highs). In other words, it was "in-range weakness"--the kind of thing we often view as incidental and inconsequential. Shortly after the 9:30am NYSE open, stocks tanked hard along with several of the recently volatile commodities. Bonds benefited from that selling, but didn't lose any ground after the stock/commodities move reversed.

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Bonds Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.03 -0.02 10YR 4.253% +0.017% 1/30/2026 8:00AM EST
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit.  Those two things may seem like they're clearly connected, but the selling didn't start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there's only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.16% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.00% 1/29/2026
Sometimes being tuned into daily mortgage rate changes means coming across other news about financial markets. In today's case, that could expose you to anything from the massive selling of certain stocks earlier in the day or the unprecedented trading levels in various commodities.  While the financial market buzz may be centered on silver and gold (and Microsoft, today), mortgage rates drifted quietly sideways. That's no surprise considering rates are based on trad...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jan 30
8:30AM Dec Core PPI y/y (%) Dec 3.3% 2.9% 3%
8:30AM Dec Core PPI m/m (%) Dec 0.7% 0.2% 0%
8:30AM Dec PPI y/y Dec 3.0% 2.7% 3%
8:30AM Dec PPI m/m (%) Dec 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
9:45AM Jan Chicago PMI Jan 44 43.5
5:00PM Fed Bowman Speech
Monday, Feb 02
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $6.921 billion
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jan 51.9 51.8
10:00AM Jan ISM Manufacturing Employment Jan 44.9
10:00AM Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan 48.3 47.9
10:00AM Jan ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jan 58.5
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Mortgage rates pulled back this week as the bond market digested geopolitical tension. After the 3-day holiday weekend, traders returned to find overseas markets pushing bond yields higher. The lesser of the two motivations had to do with fallout over fiscal issues in Japan which prompted heavy selling of Japanese bonds. There is often a certain amount of correlation between the sovereign ... READ MORE