Big Beat in ISM Manufacturing. Bonds Aren't Thrilled
Big Beat in ISM Manufacturing. Bonds Aren't Thrilled
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today's ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn't as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big enough beat to make an exception. Bonds are clearly responding, and not in a rate-friendly way.
roughly unchanged after bonds give up overnight gains in early trading. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.24
Volatility Eludes Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Feb 02 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $6.921 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jan | 52.4 | 51.9 | 51.8 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jan | 48.1 | 44.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jan | 52.6 | 48.5 | 47.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jan | 59.0 | 60.5 | 58.5 |
| 12:25PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| Tuesday, Feb 03 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Dec | 7.1M | 7.146M | |
| 10:00AM | Dec JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Dec | 3.161M | ||
| 10:10AM | Feb IBD economic optimism | Feb | 47.9 | 47.2 | |
