Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown

Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown

While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the 2nd Friday in March simply because there weren't enough work days in February to compile the data. Meanwhile, bonds continue to wait for precisely what's missing: true big ticket data. To some extent, tomorrow's ADP and ISM data could serve as supporting actors.

Market Movement Recap
09:46 AM

Sideways to slightly weaker overnight in Treasuries with 10yr now up 1bp at 4.285.  MBS outperforming, up 1 tick (.03) on the day.

Latest Video Analysis

Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.74 -0.01 10YR 4.287% +0.012% 2/3/2026 12:02PM EST
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.00% 2/3/2026
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates . Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 03
8:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:10AM Feb IBD economic optimism Feb 48.8 47.9 47.2
Wednesday, Feb 04
7:00AM Jan/30 MBA Purchase Index Jan/30 193.3
7:00AM Jan/30 MBA Refi Index Jan/30 1332.2
7:00AM Jan/30 Mortgage Market Index Jan/30 363.3
8:15AM Jan ADP jobs (k) Jan 48K 41K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.304 billion
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Composite PMI Jan 52.8 52.7
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Services PMI Jan 52.5 52.5
10:00AM Jan ISM Services Employment Jan 52.3 52.0
10:00AM Jan ISM Services Prices Jan 64.3
10:00AM Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI Jan 53.5 54.4
10:00AM Jan ISM Biz Activity Jan 56.0
10:00AM Jan ISM Services New Orders Jan 57.9
10:00AM Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Jan 15.5M 16M
10:30AM Jan/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jan/30 -2.296M
6:30PM Fed Cook Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture. Let's start with an easy one. The early January mortgage rate rally led to an obvious surge in refinance applications.  Taken together with the mini refi boom in September 2025, things look pretty ac... READ MORE