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Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown
Data-Free Day Thanks to Shutdown
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the 2nd Friday in March simply because there weren't enough work days in February to compile the data. Meanwhile, bonds continue to wait for precisely what's missing: true big ticket data. To some extent, tomorrow's ADP and ISM data could serve as supporting actors.
Sideways to slightly weaker overnight in Treasuries with 10yr now up 1bp at 4.285. MBS outperforming, up 1 tick (.03) on the day.
Not much movement. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5 bps at 4.29
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Feb 03 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:10AM | Feb IBD economic optimism | Feb | 48.8 | 47.9 | 47.2 |
| Wednesday, Feb 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/30 | 193.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 MBA Refi Index | Jan/30 | 1332.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jan/30 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/30 | 363.3 | ||
| 8:15AM | Jan ADP jobs (k) | Jan | 48K | 41K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.304 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Composite PMI | Jan | 52.8 | 52.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Jan S&P Global Services PMI | Jan | 52.5 | 52.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Employment | Jan | 52.3 | 52.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services Prices | Jan | 64.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jan | 53.5 | 54.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Biz Activity | Jan | 56.0 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Services New Orders | Jan | 57.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jan | 15.5M | 16M | |
| 10:30AM | Jan/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/30 | -2.296M | ||
| 6:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
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