Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere

Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere

The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making the rounds in financial circles. Bond issuance, inflation, and economic strength are not seen surging enough to put huge upward pressure on longer-term rates. And without a big downturn in 2 of those 3 variables, there's no major impetus for a big drop in rates. So we wait (and wait and wait) while bonds gyrate in micro-ranges.  Add today to the list. It might have been more volatile if we had the econ data that was postponed due to the shutdown, but JOLTS wouldn't be enough to singlehandedly change the narrative. Stocks and commodities were volatile in contrast, but with limited correlation to bonds. The government funding bill passed the house and a reopening is assumed for Wednesday, but Friday's jobs report will nonetheless not be coming out on Friday.

Market Movement Recap
09:46 AM

Sideways to slightly weaker overnight in Treasuries with 10yr now up 1bp at 4.285.  MBS outperforming, up 1 tick (.03) on the day.

12:34 PM

Not much movement. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5 bps at 4.29

03:14 PM

off weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.271

Latest Video Analysis

Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.80 +0.05 10YR 4.276% +0.001% 2/2/2026 8:40PM EST
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding legislation today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already said they will not be publishing either of this week's key reports (JOLTS, which would have been today, and Friday's jobs report). This is consistent with our understanding of the way BLS works. In fact, it's not uncommon for the jobs report to come out on the ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.00% 2/3/2026
The bad news: mortgage rates moved up to their highest levels in 2 weeks today.  The good news: the rate range has been very narrow during that time, so there's not too much of a difference between 2-week highs (6.20%) and lows (6.15%).  Today's move wasn't a product of anything that happened today. Rather, the culprit was the focal point of our coverage yesterday. Specifically, an economic report on the manufacturing sector was exceptionally strong yesterday....   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 03
8:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:10AM Feb IBD economic optimism Feb 48.8 47.9 47.2
Wednesday, Feb 04
7:00AM Jan/30 MBA Purchase Index Jan/30 193.3
7:00AM Jan/30 MBA Refi Index Jan/30 1332.2
7:00AM Jan/30 Mortgage Market Index Jan/30 363.3
8:15AM Jan ADP jobs (k) Jan 48K 41K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.304 billion
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Composite PMI Jan 52.8 52.7
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Services PMI Jan 52.5 52.5
10:00AM Jan ISM Services Employment Jan 52.3 52.0
10:00AM Jan ISM Services Prices Jan 64.3
10:00AM Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI Jan 53.5 54.4
10:00AM Jan ISM Biz Activity Jan 56.0
10:00AM Jan ISM Services New Orders Jan 57.9
10:00AM Jan Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Jan 15.5M 16M
10:30AM Jan/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jan/30 -2.296M
6:30PM Fed Cook Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture. Let's start with an easy one. The early January mortgage rate rally led to an obvious surge in refinance applications.  Taken together with the mini refi boom in September 2025, things look pretty ac... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House