Matt Graham
Founder and CEO
MBS Live

Waiting on Next Week's Data

Waiting on Next Week's Data

Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's interest in next week's big jobs report. But between now and then, Treasuries don't seem overly eager to re-enter the sub-4.20% trading range. 

Market Movement Recap
08:34 AM

modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.199

Latest Video Analysis

Secret Econ Data Adding to The Rally

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.01 -0.04 10YR 4.215% +0.035% 2/6/2026 10:19AM EST
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only notable report. Bonds are roughly unchanged to start the session. Treasury yields are technically a few bps higher from yesterday's 5pm levels, but right in line with 3pm (what many would argue to be the proper time to mark daily closing levels in Treasuries). Thursday's trifecta of downbeat labor data piqued the market's inter...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.17% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.75% -0.01% 2/5/2026
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and that bonds care about employment data. There are quite a few different economic reports that focus on various employment metrics. Next Wednesday's jobs report is the biggest ticket by far, but other reports can move the needle at times--especially when they fall far from forecasts or previous readings. This was the case with three separate reports today.  One of them almost never gets covered in the news, but it showed planned la...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Feb 06
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Feb 3.5% 4%
10:00AM Feb U Mich conditions Feb 58.3 54.9 55.4
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Feb 3.4% 3.3%
10:00AM Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 57.3 55 56.4
12:00PM Fed Jefferson Speech
3:00PM Dec Consumer credit (bl) Dec $8B $4.23B
Monday, Feb 09
11:00AM Jan Consumer Inflation Expectations Jan 3.4%
1:30PM Fed Waller Speech
2:30PM Fed Miran Speech
3:15PM Fed Bostic Speech
5:00PM Fed Miran Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture. Let's start with an easy one. The early January mortgage rate rally led to an obvious surge in refinance applications.  Taken together with the mini refi boom in September 2025, things look pretty ac... READ MORE
Matt Graham
Founder and CEO
MBS Live