Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp sell-off to 4.175%? Yep, that's stunning. But why did it happen? That's a question without a great answer today. We'll discuss possibilities in today's recap video.
Quick selling after jobs report, but not as bad as it might have been. 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.185 and MBS down 1 tick (.03)
Impressive resilience continues. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 2.7bps at 4.171
Even more impressive. MBS up 3 ticks and 10yr up only half a bp at 4.15
modest bounce after weaker 10yr auction. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.169
Just a hair weaker with 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.177 and MBS still unchanged
Stunning Resilience
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 MBA Refi Index | Feb/06 | 1284.6 | 1269.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/06 | 161.5 | 165.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/06 | 329.9 | 330.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jan | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jan | 130K | 70K | 50K |
| 10:15AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Feb/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/06 | 8.53M | 0.8M | -3.455M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Jan Federal budget (bl) | Jan | $-95B | $-86.5B | $-145B |
| 7:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 222K | 231K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/31 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/31 | 1850K | 1844K | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Existing home sales (ml) | Jan | 4.15M | 4.35M | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jan | 5.1% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.825% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 7:05PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
