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Stunning Resilience
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that's not the right word, it's damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today's jobs report. Yesterday's Retail Sales helped yields slight significantly below the 4.20% technical barrier. And now today, an effective 0.2% lower unemployment rate (0.1% in the rate itself + 0.1% implied by the higher participation rate) and big beat in the payroll count are worth only a 3bp sell-off to 4.175%? Yep, that's stunning. But why did it happen? That's a question without a great answer today. We'll discuss possibilities in today's recap video.
Stunning Resilience
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 222K | 231K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/31 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/31 | 1850K | 1844K | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Existing home sales (ml) | Jan | 4.15M | 4.35M | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jan | 5.1% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.825% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 7:05PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Friday, Feb 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jan m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jan | 2.5% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jan | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
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