Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025.  In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that, the guesses get more tenuous as we'd have to rely on things that can't be seen or measured. Friday's CPI carries some volatility potential, but not in the same league as the jobs report.

Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM

No major reaction to jobless claims data. Modestly stronger overnight with 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.152 and MBS up 3 ticks (0.09). 

10:02 AM

Best levels of the morning with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.15

11:29 AM

Mini-snowball rally with help from stock losses. 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.121 and MBS up 7 ticks (.22)

01:04 PM

30yr bond auction 4.75 vs 4.771 expectations.  Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.36 avg (higher is better).  

10yr yields down 6.1bps to new lows of 4.113. MBS up 8 ticks still. 

03:35 PM

Best levels of the day. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7bps at 4.103

Latest Video Analysis

Magical Mystery Rally

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.19 -0.05 10YR 4.110% +0.010% 2/12/2026 10:31PM EST
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it's the delayed release of yesterday's report and the resulting juxtaposition with tomorrow's CPI (also a relevant market mover), but bonds have immediately returned to the sort of sideways, uneven...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.10% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.69% -0.02% 2/12/2026
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Feb 12
8:30AM Feb/07 Jobless Claims (k) Feb/07 227K 222K 231K
8:30AM Jan/31 Continued Claims (k) Jan/31 1862K 1850K 1844K
10:00AM Jan Existing home sales (ml) Jan 3.91M 4.18M 4.35M
10:00AM Jan Exist. home sales % chg (%) Jan -8.4% 5.1%
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.750% 4.825%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 25
7:05PM Fed Miran Speech
Friday, Feb 13
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Jan m/m Headline CPI (%) Jan 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Jan m/m CORE CPI (%) Jan 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Jan y/y Headline CPI (%) Jan 2.5% 2.7%
8:30AM Jan y/y CORE CPI (%) Jan 2.5% 2.6%
Read My Latest Newsletter
With the announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed Chair, there's a lot of misinformation and speculation making the rounds regarding the potential impact on mortgage rates. Let's clear it up. Who is Warsh and why do people think he could be good for rates? Frankly, it doesn't matter who Warsh is. Trump was only ever going to nominate a Fed Chair who was amenable to ... READ MORE