Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.

At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025.  In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that, the guesses get more tenuous as we'd have to rely on things that can't be seen or measured. Friday's CPI carries some volatility potential, but not in the same league as the jobs report.

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Magical Mystery Rally

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.28 +0.04 10YR 4.083% -0.017% 2/13/2026 9:03AM EST
m/m CORE CPI (Jan) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Jan) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev y/y CORE CPI (Jan) 2.5% vs 2.5% f'cast, 2.6% prev y/y Headline CPI (Jan) 2.4% vs 2.5% f'cast, 2.7% prev Clearly, no bad news for bonds in the bullet points above. We'll dig into details in the morning commentary.  10yr yields are down a quick 3bps at 4.068 and MBS are up 2-3 ticks (.06-.09) but still finding l...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.10% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.69% -0.02% 2/12/2026
Just one day after an incredibly strong jobs report--something that would normally create problematic upward momentum for rates--the average lender is back to the lowest levels since January 16th. At the risk of overusing a played-out metaphor, this was not on many experts' bingo cards. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's not entirely possible to justify what we've seen over the past 2 days without jumping to conclusions and making educated guesses. Said guesses would ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Feb 13
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Jan m/m Headline CPI (%) Jan 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Jan m/m CORE CPI (%) Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Jan y/y Headline CPI (%) Jan 2.4% 2.5% 2.7%
8:30AM Jan y/y CORE CPI (%) Jan 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
Monday, Feb 16
12:00AM Presidents Day
8:25AM Fed Bowman Speech
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With the announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed Chair, there's a lot of misinformation and speculation making the rounds regarding the potential impact on mortgage rates. Let's clear it up. Who is Warsh and why do people think he could be good for rates? Frankly, it doesn't matter who Warsh is. Trump was only ever going to nominate a Fed Chair who was amenable to ... READ MORE