Stephen Heston
Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
P: (509) 202-4424
www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com
102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163
License:
2481498
1930964

Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker

The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the average weekend-adjacent trading day. Last Friday fit that bill but today could have been mistaken for a summertime Monday (despite being a wintertime Tuesday). There were no significant reports and the available Fed comments weren't actionable.  After nearly touching 4.0% in the overnight session, 10yr yields climbed slowly to 4.06 by 10am and then held mostly sideways through the close.  Considering the scope of last week's rally, a "mostly sideways" day is a victory. On a cautionary note, the absence of follow-through and the overnight bounce underscore resistance potential near present levels.

Market Movement Recap
08:43 AM

Modestly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.036

11:20 AM

weaker in the early trading. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.055

01:33 PM

Weakest levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.058

04:26 PM

heading out fairly flat. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.059

Latest Video Analysis

Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.26 -0.03 10YR 4.066% +0.006% 2/17/2026 10:31PM EST
Weakest Levels of The Day
MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. This is typically more than enough for negative reprices, but the caveat is that those highs only lasted about an hour and most lenders didn't publish rates during that time.  As such, the average lender is only seeing about 3 ticks (.09) of weakness, thus making negative reprices less of a risk.  Nonetheless, bonds are at their weakest levels and 10yr yields are up 1bp at 4.058.   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Mostly Holding Last Week's Impressive Gains
MBS Morning:
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.04% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.61% +0.00% 2/17/2026
Mortgage Rates Stay Flat to Start New Week
It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender holding right in line with last Friday's levels. In this case, that's a good thing. On the day before and/or after a 3-day weekend, rates tend to be more volatile than normal. That was certainly the case last Friday as the MND rate index dropped at its fastest pace since early January.  By holding steady, rates remain right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years.   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 17
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 10.25K 6.5K
8:30AM Feb NY Fed Manufacturing Feb 7.10 7 7.70
10:00AM Feb NAHB housing market indx Feb 36 38 37
12:45PM Fed Barr Speech
2:30PM Fed Daly Speech
Wednesday, Feb 18
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
7:00AM Feb/13 MBA Purchase Index Feb/13 161.5
7:00AM Feb/13 MBA Refi Index Feb/13 1284.6
7:00AM Feb/13 Mortgage Market Index Feb/13 329.9
8:30AM Dec Housing starts number mm (ml) Dec 1.33M
8:30AM Dec Durable goods (%) Dec -2% 5.3%
8:30AM Dec Core CapEx (%) Dec 0.5% 0.7%
9:15AM Jan Industrial Production (%) Jan 0.4% 0.4%
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
1:00PM Fed Bowman Speech
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Mortgage Rates Back Near 3-Year Lows After Defying Jobs Data
2/13/2026 3:53PM
The bond market drives changes in interest rates. Among bond traders, it's no secret that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report is the most consequential monthly economic data. But this time around, the reaction defied expectations. Specifically, if you were to tell market participants the results ahead of time (i.e. 130k jobs created versus a forecast of 70k, and a 4.3% unemploymen... READ MORE
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-  Early Payoff
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-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
Stephen Heston
Broker NMLS #1930964
Aspire Mortgage Solutions LLC NMLS #2481498
P: (509) 202-4424
www.aspiremortgagesolutions.com
102 W Main St. #3
Pullman WA 99163
License:
2481498
1930964
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.