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Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the average weekend-adjacent trading day. Last Friday fit that bill but today could have been mistaken for a summertime Monday (despite being a wintertime Tuesday). There were no significant reports and the available Fed comments weren't actionable. After nearly touching 4.0% in the overnight session, 10yr yields climbed slowly to 4.06 by 10am and then held mostly sideways through the close. Considering the scope of last week's rally, a "mostly sideways" day is a victory. On a cautionary note, the absence of follow-through and the overnight bounce underscore resistance potential near present levels.
Roughly unchanged overnight and no major reaction to 830am data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.064
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/13 | 157.1 | 161.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 MBA Refi Index | Feb/13 | 1375.9 | 1284.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/13 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/13 | 339.0 | 329.9 | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Housing starts number mm (ml) | Dec | 1.404M | 1.33M | 1.322M |
| 8:30AM | Dec Durable goods (%) | Dec | -1.4% | -2% | 5.3% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core CapEx (%) | Dec | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 9:15AM | Jan Industrial Production (%) | Jan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-56B | $-56.8B | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 46.90 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1862K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 225K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 9.3 | 12.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | 2.6% | -9.3% | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | 2.3M | 8.53M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
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