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Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a week and apparently bounced almost perfectly at 4% (10yr), but they haven't exactly done much over the past 2 days. It's just as fair to say things are "sideways and waiting for guidance," but the cautious approach is to respect the almost-too-obvious technical patterns in play since July. Specifically, bonds have rallied 25-30bps and then consolidated toward slightly higher levels on multiple occasions. This could be the beginning of another similar pattern, but anything is possible if data is gloomy over the next 2 days (especially Friday). Today's data was modestly unfriendly with core durable goods at 0.6 vs 0.4 and a lackluster 20yr bond auction (not typically a market mover, but added some pressure today).
Half-Hearted Correction Continues
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-55.5B | $-56.8B | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 46.90 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1860K | 1862K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 225K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 8.5 | 12.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | 0% | -0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | 1.3% | -9.3% | |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | 2.1M | 8.53M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 4.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 3% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 53 | ||
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 53 | 52.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 52.6 | 52.4 | |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 57.3 | 56.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.5% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 57.7 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.73M | ||
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