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Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday's overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn't a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that note, Friday is the busiest morning of the week with the 1st look at Q4 GDP as well as December PCE inflation.
Weaker overnight and little reaction to econ data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.102
Steady gains all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.081
Best levels of the day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.068
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 19 | |||||
| 8:20AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Dec Trade Gap (bl) | Dec | $-70.3B | $-55.5B | $-56.8B |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Prices Paid | Feb | 38.90 | 46.90 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 1869K | 1860K | 1862K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 206K | 225K | 227K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Philly Fed Business Index | Feb | 16.3 | 8.5 | 12.6 |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Dec | -0.2% | 0% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Jan Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | -0.8% | 1.3% | -9.3% |
| 12:00PM | Feb/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/13 | -9.014M | 2.1M | 8.53M |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 9 | |||
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 4.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 3% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 53 | ||
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 53 | 52.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 52.6 | 52.4 | |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 57.3 | 56.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.5% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 57.7 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.73M | ||
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