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Opening Salvo of Data Fails to Inspire
Opening Salvo of Data Fails to Inspire
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for non-economic reasons. For instance, the BEA noted an entire 1% of the decline from the 4.4% reading in Q3 was due to the way it counts federal worker labor during the shutdown. Most of the rest is due to late-breaking changes in the trade gap reported yesterday. The more economically indicative metrics (like real sales to domestic purchasers) suggest an uneventful sideways drift. Meanwhile, monthly PCE inflation came in a bit hotter than expected in December. Bonds had no immediate reaction and are currently roughly unchanged.
Slightly stronger overnight and a tiny bit of push-back after data. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.066
Weaker after SCOTUS ruling on tariffs. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.097
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 1.2% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 1.4% | 3% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53.0 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53 | 52.7 |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 51.2 | 52.6 | 52.4 |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | -1.7% | 15.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 56.6 | 57.3 | 56.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 56.6 | 57.7 | 55.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.745M | 0.73M | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Monday, Feb 23 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory orders mm (%) | Dec | 1.1% | 2.7% | |
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