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Opening Salvo of Data Fails to Inspire
Opening Salvo of Data Fails to Inspire
At the time of this writing, there are still a few econ reports left on deck, but the big ones are out. GDP missed big (1.4 vs 3.0), but largely for non-economic reasons. For instance, the BEA noted an entire 1% of the decline from the 4.4% reading in Q3 was due to the way it counts federal worker labor during the shutdown. Most of the rest is due to late-breaking changes in the trade gap reported yesterday. The more economically indicative metrics (like real sales to domestic purchasers) suggest an uneventful sideways drift. Meanwhile, monthly PCE inflation came in a bit hotter than expected in December. Bonds had no immediate reaction and are currently roughly unchanged.
Slightly stronger overnight and a tiny bit of push-back after data. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.066
Weaker after SCOTUS ruling on tariffs. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.097
More than reasonably resilient in the PM hours. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up only 1bp at 4.085
Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 1.2% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 1.4% | 3% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53.0 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53 | 52.7 |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 51.2 | 52.6 | 52.4 |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | -1.7% | 15.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 56.6 | 57.3 | 56.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 56.6 | 57.7 | 55.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.745M | 0.73M | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Monday, Feb 23 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory orders mm (%) | Dec | 1.1% | 2.7% | |
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