Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would bring news that the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, you wouldn't be crazy to think it would be the week's biggest news and a big potential source of volatility for bonds. But reality wasn't quite as dramatic. It's true that the tariff ruling garnered the week's highest volume as well as some elevated directional volatility, but in outright terms, it was less than 3bps in 10yr yields and about half of that was recovered as the day progressed. Reasons and implications are discussed in greater detail in today's recap video.
Surprisingly Light Reaction to Tariff Ruling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 1.2% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Dec PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 1.4% | 3% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Dec | 3% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Dec | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53.0 | |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 52.3 | 53 | 52.7 |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Feb | 51.2 | 52.6 | 52.4 |
| 9:45AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) | Dec | -1.7% | 15.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 56.6 | 57.3 | 56.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% |
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 56.6 | 57.7 | 55.4 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 10:00AM | Dec New Home Sales (ml) | Dec | 0.745M | 0.73M | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Monday, Feb 23 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory orders mm (%) | Dec | 1.1% | 2.7% | |
