Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show
If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would bring news that the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, you wouldn't be crazy to think it would be the week's biggest news and a big potential source of volatility for bonds. But reality wasn't quite as dramatic. It's true that the tariff ruling garnered the week's highest volume as well as some elevated directional volatility, but in outright terms, it was less than 3bps in 10yr yields and about half of that was recovered as the day progressed. Reasons and implications are discussed in greater detail in today's recap video.
Surprisingly Light Reaction to Tariff Ruling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Feb 23 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Dec Factory orders mm (%) | Dec | -0.5% | 2.7% | |
| Tuesday, Feb 24 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 10.25K | |||
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Dec CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Dec | 0% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Dec | 1.9% | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Dec | 1.5% | 1.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Feb | 87.3 | 84.5 | |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 3:15PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 3:15PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:00PM | President Trump State of the Union Speech (%) | ||||
