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Slower Start, More Sideways. Stock Lever in Play
Slower Start, More Sideways. Stock Lever in Play
Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably. Why "probably?" Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the "stock lever") oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday's lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items.
Mostly flat overnight and not much movement so far. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.04
Modest recover after AM weakness. MBS down 1 tick (.03) again after being down 3 ticks (.09) at 10am. 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.030
General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Feb 24 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12.75K | 10.25K | ||
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 9:00AM | Dec CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Dec | -0.1% | 0% | |
| 9:00AM | Dec FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Dec | 1.8% | 1.9% | |
| 9:00AM | Dec Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Dec | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 9:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Feb CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Feb | 91.2 | 87 | 84.5 |
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 3:15PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 3:15PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:00PM | President Trump State of the Union Speech (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Feb 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/20 | 157.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Refi Index | Feb/20 | 1375.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/20 | 339.0 | ||
| 9:35AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Feb/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/20 | -9.014M | ||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 1:20PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
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