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Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data
Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data
Some days, there's a lot to say about what's going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher. We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy later).
Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05
MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042
Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/20 | 149.7 | 157.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Refi Index | Feb/20 | 1432.9 | 1375.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/20 | 340.2 | 339.0 | |
| 9:35AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Feb/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/20 | 15.989M | 1.8M | -9.014M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | 0.099% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 1:20PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 1860K | 1869K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 215K | 206K | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
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