Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI

Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI

We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment.

Market Movement Recap
08:34 AM

No reaction despite balmy PPI.  MNS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 3.982

01:03 PM

MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yhr down 3.5bps at 3.969

Latest Video Analysis

Knockin' on 10yr Floor

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.41 +0.03 10YR 4.002% -0.002% 2/26/2026 7:23PM EST
We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 5.99% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.60% -0.01% 2/27/2026
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewh...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Feb 27
8:30AM Jan PPI m/m (%) Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
8:30AM Jan Core PPI m/m (%) Jan 0.8% 0.3% 0.7%
8:30AM Jan PPI y/y Jan 2.9% 2.6% 3%
8:30AM Jan Core PPI y/y (%) Jan 3.6% 3% 3.3%
9:45AM Feb Chicago PMI Feb 57.7 52.8 54.0
10:00AM Nov Construction spending (%) Nov -0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
10:00AM Dec Construction spending (%) Dec 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Monday, Mar 02
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI Feb 51.2 52.4
10:00AM Feb ISM Manufacturing Employment Feb 48.1
10:00AM Feb ISM Mfg Prices Paid Feb 59.5 59.0
10:00AM Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb 52.3 52.6
Read My Latest Newsletter
In addition to being shortened by Monday's holiday, this week's economic data didn't spark any big reactions in the bond market. Even after The Supreme Court ruled against certain recently-applied tariffs, rates managed to end the week right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The bond market dictates interest rates, and the tariff news was the biggest event of the week fo... READ MORE