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10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness
10yr Breaking Above 4.10% After Overnight weakness
The bond market has already shown an indifference to this week's econ data as a market mover (even though we expect that to change with tomorrow's jobs report). This morning, however, the trend continues with stronger jobless claims and a big uptick in labor costs failing to inspire a reaction. But there has been movement. A steady wave of overnight selling pushed 10yr yields more than 3bps higher, easily breaking above the 4.10% technical level. Attempting to clearly connect that move to underlying motivation is an imperfect science, yet again. Oil prices and yields continue to correlate, but yields rose faster on a relative basis.
Weaker overnight and little-changed after data. MBS down just over an eighth and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136
sideways at weaker levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136
sideways at similar levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.134
Mostly Sideways Even After Upbeat Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Feb Challenger layoffs (k) | Feb | 48.307K | 108.435K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Import prices mm (%) | Jan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/28 | 213K | 215K | 212K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 1868K | 1850K | 1833K |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.8% | 2% | -1.9% |
| Friday, Mar 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Participation Rate | Feb | 62.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Average earnings mm (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales (%) | Jan | -0.3% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jan | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Feb | 59K | 130K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Unemployment rate mm (%) | Feb | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Business Inventories (% ) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Jan Consumer credit (bl) | Jan | $12B | $24.05B | |
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