Bonds Remain On The Run
Bonds Remain On The Run
The bond market doesn't look like it can catch a break as long as war persists in Iran. If it's not oil, it's fertilizer, nat gas, military spending, or a host of other inflationary knock-on effects that bode ill for the fixed income sector. Yes, the implied economic fallout would help offset the inflationary impulses, but not enough for rates to make downward progress just yet. Bonds will need to get past the point of pricing in another big inflation reckoning for that to happen. Until then, downward progress will be tough to sustain. This morning's headlines (which involve more reports of mines in shipping channels and a Trump comment that said military objectives were more important than oil prices) have pushed the June Fed rate cut outlook to its worst levels in a year. 10yr yields are easily back up and over the 4.20% technical level.
Roughly unchanged overnight. No reaction to econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.223
Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point. 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.254.
Back to weakest levels after a very modest attempt to recover. MBS down a quarter point again and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.253
General Selling Spree Continues
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jan | 1.487M | 1.35M | 1.404M |
| 8:30AM | Jan Trade Gap (bl) | Jan | $-54.5B | $-66.6B | $-70.3B |
| 8:30AM | Mar/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/07 | 213K | 215K | 213K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/28 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/28 | 1850K | 1850K | 1868K |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.871% | 4.750% | ||
| Friday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 1.2% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Durable goods (%) | Jan | 1.2% | -1.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core CapEx (%) | Jan | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 1.4% | 4.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jan | 3.204M | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 56.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 55 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jan | 6.70M | 6.542M | |
