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War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the curve with 2yr yields at the highest levels in more than 6 months.
Roughly unchanged overnight. No reaction to econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.223
Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point. 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.254.
Back to weakest levels after a very modest attempt to recover. MBS down a quarter point again and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.253
More selling around the 3pm close. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.27
Bond Market Protesting The War
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Housing starts number mm (ml) | Jan | 1.487M | 1.35M | 1.404M |
| 8:30AM | Jan Trade Gap (bl) | Jan | $-54.5B | $-66.6B | $-70.3B |
| 8:30AM | Mar/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/07 | 213K | 215K | 213K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/28 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/28 | 1850K | 1850K | 1868K |
| 11:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.871% | 4.750% | ||
| Friday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 1.2% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Durable goods (%) | Jan | 1.2% | -1.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core CapEx (%) | Jan | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 1.4% | 4.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jan | 3.204M | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 56.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 55 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jan | 6.70M | 6.542M | |
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