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War Protest: Bond Market Edition
War Protest: Bond Market Edition
There's no quicker way to classify the movement we've seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran--not because it's a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren't even any major developments today--just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the curve with 2yr yields at the highest levels in more than 6 months.
Bond Market Protesting The War
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Durable goods (%) | Jan | 0% | 1.2% | -1.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core CapEx (%) | Jan | 0% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 10:00AM | Jan JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jan | 3.1M | 3.204M | |
| 10:00AM | Jan USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jan | 6.946M | 6.70M | 6.542M |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 57.8 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 55.5 | 55 | 56.6 |
| Monday, Mar 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar NY Fed Manufacturing | Mar | -0.20 | 3.2 | 7.10 |
| 9:15AM | Feb Industrial Production (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | ||||
| 10:00AM | Mar NAHB housing market indx | Mar | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
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