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Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
Decent Start, Lower Oil Prices, Weaker Data
There's a high bar for econ data to have any impact on bonds these days and that's especially true of inflation reports like this morning's PCE. Thankfully, no one needs to make a case for PCE having an impact, but the small amount of help for bonds came from a big miss in core retail sales and, to a lesser extent, a fairly chunky downward revision in GDP. Even then, the reaction was microscopic and hard to separate from a nice little drop in oil prices that had been underway since around 4am ET. All of that has only been worth a 1.6bp drop in 10yr yields and just over an eight of a point of improvement in MBS.
Sideways to slightly stronger and a modestly positive reaction to the 8:30am data. MBS up an eighths and 10yr down 1.34bps at 4.252
MBS down an eighth of a point and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.278
flattening out at weakest levels. MBS still down an eighth and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.284
Bond Market Protesting The War
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 13 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Durable goods (%) | Jan | 0% | 1.2% | -1.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core CapEx (%) | Jan | 0% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jan | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 4.4% |
| 10:00AM | Jan JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jan | 3.1M | 3.204M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 57.8 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 55.5 | 55 | 56.6 |
| 10:00AM | Jan USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jan | 6.946M | 6.70M | 6.542M |
| Monday, Mar 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar NY Fed Manufacturing | Mar | 3.8 | 7.10 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (%) | Feb | 0% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Feb | |||
| 9:15AM | Feb Industrial Production (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | ||||
| 10:00AM | Mar NAHB housing market indx | Mar | 37 | 36 | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | |||
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