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Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's definitely been the dominant consideration, and that was double true today.
Moderately stronger overnight with additional gains in early domestic trading. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.232
MBS still up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.237
Best levels of the day with MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr yields down 6bps at 4.218
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar NY Fed Manufacturing | Mar | -0.20 | 3.2 | 7.10 |
| 9:15AM | Feb Industrial Production (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | ||||
| 10:00AM | Mar NAHB housing market indx | Mar | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | |||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| Tuesday, Mar 17 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15.5K | |||
| 8:30AM | Feb Housing starts number mm (ml) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Pending Home Sales (%) | Feb | -0.5% | -0.8% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
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