Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
There's no sense in overcomplicating today's trading session. Oil was down significantly and so were bond yields. The correlation was very strong after 4am ET with each major peak and valley aligning. Econ data was present, but not a relevant consideration for trading. Stocks were also part of the correlation game but in a perfectly inverted way (peak in oil/yields = valley in stock prices). In other words, both sides of the market remain transfixed by energy prices. This hasn't been the exclusive market mover in March, but it's definitely been the dominant consideration, and that was double true today.
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 17 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15.5K | |||
| 8:30AM | Feb Housing starts number mm (ml) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Pending Home Sales (%) | Feb | -0.5% | -0.8% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Wednesday, Mar 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/13 | 389.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 MBA Refi Index | Mar/13 | 1646.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/13 | 171.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI y/y | Feb | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PPI m/m (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI m/m (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Factory orders mm (%) | Jan | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/13 | 3.824M | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||