Zachary Kempf
Capital Markets Analyst
Plains Commerce Bank
P: (605) 271-7939
plainscommerce.com
3905 W 49th St
Sioux Falls SD 57106

Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger

Bonds did something they haven't done in almost 3 weeks today. They closed at stronger levels for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 27th at the end of the impressive month-long rally. While today was stronger, it wasn't exactly impressive (or event that interesting). The most notable development was the fact that bonds rallied despite slightly higher oil prices. This is the opposite dynamic from certain moments last week where bonds underperformed a 1:1 correlation with oil. 

Latest Video Analysis

Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.46 +0.08 10YR 4.182% -0.018% 3/18/2026 6:22AM EST
Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil
Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the daily checklist. In so doing, we see a bit of outperformance on the part of bonds this morning. While there is solid directional correlation (i.e. yields and oil were moving in the same directions at the same times), bond yields are lower today while oil is still a bit higher. Surpri...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
Alert:
Negative Reprices are Now Highly Likely
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.29% -0.07% 15YR Fixed 5.93% -0.02% 3/17/2026
The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates , but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates . After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afte...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Mar 18
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
7:00AM Mar/13 Mortgage Market Index Mar/13 347.1 389.6
7:00AM Mar/13 MBA Refi Index Mar/13 1,341.0 1646.3
7:00AM Mar/13 MBA Purchase Index Mar/13 172.9 171.3
8:30AM Feb PPI y/y Feb 2.9% 2.9%
8:30AM Feb Core PPI m/m (%) Feb 0.3% 0.8%
8:30AM Feb PPI m/m (%) Feb 0.3% 0.5%
10:00AM Jan Factory orders mm (%) Jan 0.1% -0.7%
10:30AM Mar/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Mar/13 0.4M 3.824M
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.1%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 3.4%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - Current 3.6%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3%
2:00PM FOMC Economic Projections
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 3.75% 3.75%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
Thursday, Mar 19
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid Mar 38.90
8:30AM Mar Philly Fed Business Index Mar 10 16.3
8:30AM Mar/07 Continued Claims (k) Mar/07 1850K 1850K
8:30AM Mar/14 Jobless Claims (k) Mar/14 215K 213K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%)
10:00AM Jan New Home Sales (%) (%) Jan -1.7%
10:00AM Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jan -0.2%
10:00AM Jan New Home Sales (ml) Jan 0.72M 0.745M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 19
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks
3/13/2026 4:08PM
February ended with 30yr fixed rates at the lowest level in more than 3 years. There's been a grueling march higher since then with average rates ending the week at 7-month highs. While the first few days of March were open to some debate about the reasons for the rate spike, there's now only one elephant in the room, and it's a war elephant.  Wars have various effects on financial... READ MORE
Mortgage Calculators
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-  Early Payoff
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-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
Zachary Kempf
Capital Markets Analyst
Plains Commerce Bank
P: (605) 271-7939
plainscommerce.com
3905 W 49th St
Sioux Falls SD 57106
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.