Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obvious response even if it's not a huge response. Today's installment is bigger than normal. If there's a reason, it would be that the PPI components that flow through to PCE (a more important inflation metric) are all elevated (sometimes they run counter to the PPI headline). If there's another reason, it's because bonds aren't just reacting to PPI but also doing the same oil "follow oil prices" routine. The Fed announcement and dot plot hits at 2pm.
Slightly weaker after PPI data. MBS unchanged after being up a few ticks and 10yr up .8bps at 4.207
additional weakness with oil prices spiking. 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.227 and MBS down more than an eighth of a point
Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 18 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/13 | 347.1 | 389.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 MBA Refi Index | Mar/13 | 1341.0 | 1646.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/13 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/13 | 172.9 | 171.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI y/y | Feb | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PPI m/m (%) | Feb | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Feb PPI m/m (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Jan Factory orders mm (%) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.7% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/13 | 6.156M | 0.4M | 3.824M |
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Mar 19 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Prices Paid | Mar | 38.90 | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Philly Fed Business Index | Mar | 10 | 16.3 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/07 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/07 | 1850K | 1850K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/14 | 215K | 213K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jan New Home Sales (%) (%) | Jan | -1.7% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Jan | -0.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jan New Home Sales (ml) | Jan | 0.72M | 0.745M | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
