Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode

Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode

Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mortgage lenders, but infrequently, a big picture repricing occurs in the bond market. That's what's going on in March and especially over the last 2.5 days. Wednesday's Fed comments and Thursday's ECB/BOE comments confirmed that there's a floor under short term rates for a vast majority of the planet's reserve currency holdings, AND that hikes are quickly replacing cuts as the next likely move (September Fed meeting went from 0% hike chance to more than 25% in less than 2 days). Trading and investment strategies of a majority of the world's investible capital was positioned for an entirely different reality before the Iran war. Now it is repositioning... repricing for new realities. 

Market Movement Recap
09:46 AM

Sharply weaker overnight with additional selling all morning. MBS down over half a point and 10yr up 7.8bps at 4.327.

01:37 PM

MBS down half a point and 10yr up 11.4bps at 4.364

Latest Video Analysis

Snowball Selling

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.15 -0.85 10YR 4.383% +0.133% 3/20/2026 5:46PM EST
One last alert for the road today.  No sense in overdoing it, but it's worth noting that MBS are now at new lows with 5.0 coupons down nearly a full point on the day and 10yr yields up 14.2bps at 4.391.  Any lender could justify a negative reprice, but actual risk will depend on how conservative the most recent rate sheet is.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.53% +0.10% 15YR Fixed 6.07% +0.05% 3/20/2026
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they've been since September 3rd, 2025.  The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying catalyst as surging fuel costs force global central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook. As...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 20
Monday, Mar 23
10:00AM Jan Construction spending (%) Jan 0.1% 0.3%
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While the word "regime" is often seen in a geopolitical context, it's also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week. Under the previous regime, bonds (which dictate rates) were operating on the following p... READ MORE