Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over
Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over
Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Iran war. Markets traded accordingly, including the "doubts" part (i.e. there was an initial rebound yesterday and an additional rebound this morning). 10yr yields have now fully erased yesterday morning's gains even though oil prices remain quite a bit lower.
Losing ground in choppy trading as oil rebounds. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.389
weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.409
Off lows, but choppy. MBS down 5 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.373
Bumpy 2 year Treasury auction causing weakness. MBS down 3/8ths again and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.42
Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 24 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 10K | 9K | ||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar | 51.4 | 51.9 | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Services PMI | Mar | 51.1 | 51.5 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (ml) | Feb | 0.745M | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 6:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Mar 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Refi Index | Mar/20 | 1341.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/20 | 172.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/20 | 347.1 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Import prices mm (%) | Feb | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/20 | 0.5M | 6.156M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:10PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
