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Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Tuesday was notable for financial markets' attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over--so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the war will continue to be more actionable for markets than scheduled economic data--especially this week.
Juxtaposition of War Headlines Keeping Bonds Volatile
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Refi Index | Mar/20 | 1145.0 | 1341.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/20 | 163.6 | 172.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/20 | 310.7 | 347.1 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Import prices mm (%) | Feb | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/20 | 6.926M | 0.5M | 6.156M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:10PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Mar 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 210K | 205K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/14 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/14 | 1860K | 1857K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 7:10PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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