Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War
Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday's developments (Trump comments on the war being "won" and the 30-day ceasefire news from Israel) are being taken more seriously by markets. Oddly enough, oil prices and bond yields are holding onto the gains despite Iran refuting negotiation claims and launching another wave of air strikes.
Choppy and slightly stronger. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.327
Near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.315
Relatively weak 5yr auction but no major reaction. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.329
Juxtaposition of War Headlines Keeping Bonds Volatile
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Refi Index | Mar/20 | 1145.0 | 1341.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/20 | 163.6 | 172.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/20 | 310.7 | 347.1 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Import prices mm (%) | Feb | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/20 | 6.926M | 0.5M | 6.156M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.115% | 0.099% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:10PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Mar 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 210K | 205K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/14 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/14 | 1860K | 1857K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 7:10PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
