Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-escalation matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S. wants to wind down the war, that's what will happen and that's what the bond market likes.
Here's Why We're Seeing Lighter Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 210K | 210K | 205K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/14 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/14 | 1,819K | 1850K | 1857K |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 7:10PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Friday, Mar 27 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 56.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 54 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 11:30AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
