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Oil And Yields Move Back Up
Oil And Yields Move Back Up
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to the weekend without good news on negotiations, the more escalation risk will be priced-in by the market due to the Saturday deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels lest they be taken by force.
Weaker overnight and no reaction to data. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.4bps at 4.375
Down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs. 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.376
Weakest levels. MBS down more than 3/8ths and 10yr up 7bps at 4.399
More selling. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 8.6bps at 4.417
Here's Why We're Seeing Lighter Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 210K | 210K | 205K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/14 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/14 | 1819K | 1850K | 1857K |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 7:10PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Friday, Mar 27 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 56.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 54 | 56.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| 11:30AM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
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