Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
Today's most notable development was a fairly large bond rally despite another uptick in oil prices. The leading explanation, by far, is the general notion that investors are increasingly worried about the economic impact of higher oil prices. There is no clean way to measure this in the short term, and even those espousing the notion are reluctant to conclude that it marks a turning point in the broader sell-off. For now, it was a nice way to start the week, even if it also drew strength from the positioning considerations discussed this morning.
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jan | -0.1% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jan | 1.8% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jan Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jan | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 55 | 57.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 3.1M | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Mar | 88 | 91.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Feb | 6.92M | 6.946M | |
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 163.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 1145.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 310.7 | ||
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 40K | 63K | |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.4 | 51.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 73.5 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.3 | 52.4 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | -1.3M | 6.926M | |
