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Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct turning point in the war.
Moderately stronger overnight. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.302
Near best levels with MBS up more than 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.298
MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.31
Off the best levels after quarter-end rebalancing trades. MBS up only 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down only 3 bps at 4.322
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Jan CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jan | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jan | 1.6% | 1.8% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 52.8 | 55 | 57.7 |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 2.974M | 3.1M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Mar | 91.8 | 88 | 91.2 |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Feb | 6.882M | 6.92M | 6.946M |
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 163.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 1145.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 310.7 | ||
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 40K | 63K | |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.4 | 51.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 73 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.5 | 52.4 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | -1.3M | 6.926M | |
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