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Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid--sometimes puzzling--gains in February followed by a relative rout in March. Heavy quarter-end rebalancing flows are making for more volatility than normal at 4pm ET, but up until that point, 10yr yields had rallied roughly 8bps. Those gains were fueled by headlines that spoke to potential de-escalation in Iran--something that's easy enough to confirm by examining the corresponding drop in oil prices and spike in stocks. That said, the underlying news falls short of marking a distinct turning point in the war.
slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301
Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 159.4 | 163.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 946.4 | 1145.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 278.3 | 310.7 | |
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 62K | 40K | 63K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (%) | Feb | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Feb | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.3 | 52.4 | 51.6 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.7 | 48.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 78.3 | 73 | 70.5 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.7 | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | 5.451M | 0.8M | 6.926M |
| 9:00PM | US President Trump Speech (%) | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Mar Challenger layoffs (k) | Mar | 48.307K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Trade Gap (bl) | Feb | $-59.2B | $-54.5B | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 212K | 210K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 1840K | 1819K | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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